Youth is the Republican’s problem; there is no one with any real experience running anything, just a bunch of hacks in government.

The 18th is not necessarily a Republican District; it’s a LaHood district. Everyone should have learned in PoliSci 101 that the number 1 predictor of congressional electoral success is incumbency. Ray runs, he wins, not by being a Republican but by being the incumbent. This is true absent strong national poltical controversies where the incumbent is on the wrong side of the issue, like Ray and the war.

Strong pockets of Dems exist in the 18th. Peoria is essentially a Dem town, as is East Peoria, Pekin, Sangamon near Springfield, places on the road to Quincy.

No incumbent + anti-war mood + Republican pro-war mood = Democratic victory

3. Repubs have not yet hit bottom. If nothing changes about the war, and Schock says nothing needs to change (meaning end the war now), he will lose. Expect national politics to come home to roost in the 18th, where we haven’t had to have those discussions yet.

Think about it: Ray can be rep as long as he wants. Ray is a loyal Republican. They love the guy in DC. He can have a better job if he wants it in any Republican administration, including Bush. But he quits. In a midterm, meaning no sitting politician in the area can run. Perhaps he knows something we don’t, just how bad things are for the Rep Party nationwide. Better to leave while you’re ahead and not get beaten maybe he thinks?

That is, if the Dem candidate can talk intelligently about those issues around here, which I have yet to hear. Lyons, Benassi, are good people, just don’t have the vision and intelligence to act for national interests or the clout to represent local interests.

The Illinois Rep Party is in terrible shape, ill equipped to fill Ray’s seat and the downstate dems are equally incompetant.