Aaron Schock is frightening
I received the following press release today
POLL SHOWS AARON SCHOCK HAS COMMANDING LEAD IN RACE FOR CONGRESS
Schock beats his nearest rival for the Republican nomination Darin LaHood by a 2 to 1 margin
Schock towers over other Republicans in ability to beat Democrats in ‘08
Poll demonstrates the intensity of electoral support Schock has built up
Aaron Schock playing well in Peoria and beyond
Wow! Five headlines! This must be big news. Here’s the rest:
(PEORIA, IL) For voters interested in the Republican nomination for Congress to succeed retiring Congressman Ray LaHood (IL-18), the Aaron Schock campaign is publicly sharing recent polling results showing Schock in a commanding position to win the Republican nomination and to go on to trounce his Democrat opponent in the general election as well.
Schock now leads his nearest possible competitor
Darin LaHood by a two-to-one margin. Two other candidates, Peoria ex-city councilmanJohn Morris and Heartland Partnership official Jim McConoughey trail far behind Schock and LaHood with only 3% each. “Of course the only poll that counts is on Election Day but what a fantastic position to start out in,†said Schock for Congress campaign manager Steven Shearer. “This poll, done by one of the most respected polling firms in the nation, proves the strength Aaron Schock begins with as a candidate for Congress. Once all voters in the 18th District get a full view of Aaron Schock’s record of accomplishment, his margin will surely rise even more. People have always responded well to Aaron Schock’s inspirational campaigns.â€
The most important aspect of the poll is the strength of support that each of the candidates now have. This crucial measurement indicates each candidate’s intensity of support and the ability of other candidates to win over voters now only “somewhat†committed to a particular candidate. This measurement is the one Aaron Schock truly towers over all other opponents—both Republican and Democrat. For instance the poll found only 4% of Republican primary voters “strongly supporting†Darin LaHood while Schock has 6 times that level of “strongly supporting†Republican voters.
Hey, look! Another headline:
SCHOCK LEADS IN POLL
Once more, each of four Republican candidates, Aaron Schock, John Morris,
Jim McConoughey and Darin LaHood were each measured among all voters in the General Election against Judge Richard Grawey as the Democratic candidate. Schock is clearly the strongest Republican candidate in the November match-up. Schock fared far better than any other Republican candidates and was the only Republican to score above 50% of the vote against Democrat Grawey in the General Election.The poll showed Schock overwhelming Grawey by 33% of the vote. While Morris beat Grawey by only 8 points; McConoughey beat Grawey by only 7 points, and Darin LaHood beat Grawey by 18 points. With Schock beating the Democrat by almost twice as high a plurality than Darin LaHood and four times as much as the other two Republicans, it proves Schock is by far the strongest candidate Republicans can put forward in the Fall of 2008, which might be yet another difficult year for Republicans, especially in Illinois.
Shearer said he wouldn’t trade Aaron Schock’s position with any other potential candidate—Republican or Democrat.
Since the fall of 2004 Aaron Schock’s campaigns have spent over a million dollars on broadcast television ads that reached the vast majority of people in the 18th Congressional District. All told the two Schock campaigns for state representative have spent a combined two million dollars which has had the effect of getting Schock’s message out far wider than the 92nd state house district. As a result, Schock has widespread name ID and outstanding favorability ratings as well throughout the 18th District.
What’s the message and for whom is the message means? Answer: The target audience is the other candidates, and to some extent, potential donors. There is nothing Schock wants more than for undeclared candidates to decide they have other things to do with their time. The best way to do that is to dry up their funding. Schock doesn’t want donors to even consider backing Darin LaHood or any of these others schmoes. Money wins elections and the only way to get money is to show investors, I’m sorry, “donors,” that all the money is already on you so they better hop onto the gravy train.
Remember, also, that this is the very first time Schock is facing real opposition in the primary. Some of the bloom might come off the rose if there’s a divisive primary.
NOTE: Here is a PDF file showing the polling numbers: il18shockcharts.pdf
Billy Dennis is a former reporter and editor at small daily and weekly newspapers in Illinois and Missouri. He comments on media, news and politics. He also owns and operates 
Aaron should win hands down over the opponents that have surfaced to date. Darin LaHood is an unknown that can only count on the Lebanese vote. Anyone who has watched Peoria City Council on TV will likely not vote for John Morris. Jim McConoughey needs to get out of the rarified air of downtown to see what others think about the Heartland Partnership.
[...] Think about that when you take these online polls, such as this one, which Peoria Pundit posed as a challenge to aggressive ads by the Schock campaign. [...]
“Schock in a commanding position to win the Republican nomination and to go on to trounce HIS Democrat opponent in the general election as well.”
The arrogance that he is entitled to this race and that it is already HIS Democratic opponent is frightening. With Steve Shearer as his campaign manager Schock might just scare of all of HIS voters.
Also, why didn’t they release all of their results? We all know from previous commentors that they asked a lot more questions than that, maybe they didn’t find those answers to be as favorable.
11Bravo – for the purposes of interpreting poll results, some of the questions are more about “positioning” and “framing”.
Let me give you a ‘for instance.’
After asking who your choice of candidate is, then they try to find out you ‘hot button’ issue.
Iraq
Global Warming
Economy
Abortion
National Security/Terrorism
add in the probability of a person voting (on a 1-5 scale) and you can create some interesting Excel files that might give you some insight into not only why elections go the way they do. Some of that you don’t always want to share, and always, you want to shown your strengths, not weaknesses.
Anyway, as Tony likes to say, there are three kinds of lies.
Lies
Damn Lies
and Statistics.
Darren Lahood has no qualifications to speak of other than being his Dad’s son. I think the average voter expects a little more than that these days. Schock, on the other hand, has an impressive record of winning campaigns and service to the public. Voters would show an astonishing amount of shallow-ness if they ultimately elected Darren Lahood
His name is Darin, and he has been a prosecutor at the county and federal level. That’s nothing to sneeze at.
Why is Judge Grawey the only Dem listed? Why not poll against Patricia Benassi? Or Rep. Bill Edley? Or Judge Sue Meyerscough? Too? Their names have been out there long enough to have been included in this poll, no?
Is Grawey the least well known of the candidates? Is that why just him?
Lies, damn lies and statistics indeed.
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[...] keep hearing about how wonderful Aaron Schock is and how he’s already locked up the GOP nomination for Ray [...]
[...] those who missed it, State Rep. Aaron Schock released the results of an opinion poll that showed him leading the race for the Republican nomination for the seat in the 18th District [...]