Opinion: Campaign disclosures show Schock is vulnerable
The Journal Star’s lede on the 18th District financial statements is how they raised a combined $600,000. Is that really the most important thing the public needs to know, what the combined total is? It’s like reporting on March 2, 1962, that Philadelphia Warriors players Paul Arizin and Wilt Chamberlain once combined to score 116 points against the Knicks.
The lede is that Aaron Schock, touted as the inevitable primary winner, isn’t doing as hot as one would expect, and that the incumbent — Ray LaHood — is donating cash to opponents John Morris and Jim McConoughey. As I’ve reported before, there is an “anybody but Schock” sentiment running through the Republican Party, and that Schock’s greatest strength is the feeling being perpetuated in the media that he’s unbeatable. If that perception is seriously challenged, this “anybody but Schock” undercurrent will make itself felt.
Here some, but not all, of the the concerns I keep hearing expressed from conservatives and moderate GOP voters:
- Schock talks conservative in front of conservatives, but talks like a moderate in front of voters back home.
- Schock isn’t so much a leader, as he’s someone who’s being “groomed” to be able to win elections.
- He has a boyish charm that works well with voters, but more experienced Congressmen will not take him seriously.
- At 26, he’s too young to be casting important votes about the national security, especially during war.
- He has a relatively weak legislative record.
- Campaign manager Steve Shearer has an unsavory track record.
The primary election is in February. That’s three full months during which any number of things could happen. First, Democratic candidate Dick Versace’s campaign got off to a very bad start. If that bad start continues, there is less concern among party members that the most electable candidate — supposedly Schock — needs to be the one who wins the primary. Second, either Morris or McConoughey could drop out, and maybe even endorse the other. There’s the possibility of big name endorsements. And there is always the possible a scandal might erupt in any of the three campaigns. If it happens to Schock, some of that PAC money is going to start coming John Morris’ way.
Billy Dennis is a former reporter and editor at small daily and weekly newspapers in Illinois and Missouri. He comments on media, news and politics. He also owns and operates 
For a general GOP voter, this article suggests two things: that Jim McConoughey is weak, and that John Morris is a big surprise. And since Morris and McCounoughey are really each others biggest challenge (since non-Schock voters may spilt on those two), Morris’ treasure is pretty impressive compared to McConoughey’s…an important break for Morris to be sure, at least on the face of it.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of contributors: is there a shell game (albeit legal) played with Schock’s state campaign money. Who’s getting what PAC money. Etc.
The lynchpin here is how these guys do outside of Peoria. I’m not sure what the percent of Peoria voters there are in the district, maybe 12% to 15%. That’s a lot of rural voters. We have three “urbanites” here…someone has got to figure out how to communicate with those outside the city.
Moreover, there is another concern being expressed by conservatives and republicans about Aaron Schock – and it deosn’t seem to get mentioned here or any other “media outlet”. Innuedo or rumor that it may be, it is none the less a factor in this election.
Re. the “breakdown of contributors”…
Oops…already out there…Should’ve read your earlier posts…thanks!
Although the money primary is important, most voters haven’t begun to pay attention yet. The key will be in how they spend that money and what kind of campaigns they each run. I agree with your assessment of the “anybody but Schock” undercurrent. Being from Tazewell, there is a beleif centering around the Chairperson that the G.O.P. needs a fresh face to revitalize it. Also there are enough questionable “deals” in each of the three camps that it should provide plenty of fireworks from now until February. Hopefully, the Journalists and citizen journalist will work at exposing these stories and not get focused on the horserace aspect. BTW keep following the money and hammering away.
Hmmm, at 26 he wouldn’t be too young to go off and die or get maimed for life, but he is too young to vote on important issues during a time of war?
(I know that you didn’t say that Billy, but this is my reply to those who did say that)
At 26 many of us had already been sent off to die, be injured, deal with the realities of war…yet Schock chose a different route. I don’t have a problem with those who choose not to serve, but I do take a look at a candidate’s path to their current role in life. As a veteran, I know that I wouldn’t trust the guy to make decisions regarding national security or the war…but it has nothing to do with his age.
You’d let a 26 year old work for you but might not let them run your billion dollar company.
Thank you.
Kris,
The one thing that no one has been pointing out about ANYONE’s fundraising is that most of them half slightly over half of those actual totals, as most of their big money is doubled up for both the primary and general elections.
If I had 50,000 to donate to my own campaign at 26, I wouldn’t even run. Might as well just retire.
“At 26, he’s too young to be casting important votes about the national security, especially during war.”
- Irrelevant. Haven’t you people heard? After Hillary becomes Commander and Chief there will be no more wars and terrorists will lay down their weapons. Peace will breakout across the Earth.
Schock talks conservative in front of conservatives, but talks like a moderate in front of voters back home.
Pander to the base, play to the crowd.
Schock isn’t so much a leader, as he’s someone who’s being “groomed†to be able to win elections.
Considering the incumbent is giving money to his opponents, who’s grooming him?
He has a boyish charm that works well with voters, but more experienced Congressmen will not take him seriously.
Cheap shot: Republican legislators seem to be into boyish charms lately.
At 26, he’s too young to be casting important votes about the national security, especially during war.
26 is actually an issue.
He has a relatively weak legislative record.
I don’t know.
Campaign manager Steve Shearer has an unsavory track record.
As opposed to warm fuzzy campaign managers everyone else has. Does he have a record of winning?
If Aaron Schock did not attain 25 years of age on the 3 of Jan 2009 then he would be too young – ACCORDING TO THE US CONSTITUTION. Everything else is idle chatter to stir up interest.
So he can cast unimportant votes( on national security) during wartime and no one will find it odd. Or He can cast diffficult votes( on national security) during peace time and no one will care.
Does anyone talk to a group of people that have signs hung around their necks that says ” CONSERVATIVE VOTER” or another that says “Moderate voter”. I think not. Unless someone is in every place of election activities of Aaron Schock( and hears every word spoken and the context in which it is framed) how can anyone make a charge such as stated above.
PC…it’s very easy. If one were to attend a Republican gathering (such as a breakfast, a Lincoln Dinner, etc.) they could hear the answers to questions in a conservative crowd. If they then were to attend a public rally of some sort or read the papers which quote him (etc. etc. etc…there are many such opportunities), they could hear responses to a moderate or “mixed” ideology group. It’s not nearly as challenging as you would like to make it seem.
As for the votes in war or peace time, some of us would still care. Foreign policy and national security apply at all times, not solely during times of war.
Wonder,
I have been to those exact gatherings and I did not see any signs that said I am a CONSERVATIVE voter/ Moderate voter. There were both of those groups present at each meeting, so who was he addressing primarily, the conservative or the moderate? I believe that Aaron addresses the group of voters assembled on any given occaison with what is imortant to those voters. Whether they are conservative home owners or moderate home owners, the concern is more than likely about home owner issues -taxes, safety, crime, etc.not about political ideology.
The Wonderboy- I think PC just made your argument for you.
PC: “I believe that Aaron addresses the group of voters assembled on any given occaison with what is imortant to those voters.”
Aaron is a professional politician that’s what he does and what he will always do. His puppet master has trained him well, just liked he trained another congressman (and he turned out so well too!),
PC–I wish I were still a believer like you. Perhaps I have been in this game for too long and reality has finally bitten me in the rear. I truly hope that you can hold on to such optimism, however I tend to believe your views are based more on personal perception than reality.
11Bravo–I agree. It’s not just in which issues are addressed, however, it is also in the language and rhetoric chosen to express his beliefs. And you couldn’t be more correct in your assessment of the puppet master.
Help The Confused:
WHO is the Puppet-Master?
ONE candidate is already reaching primary voters with his message through TV, radio and signs AND has a family AND has apparently received various means of support in the form of money and staff from Ray LaHood .
If he can sustain through the next three-and-a-half months, McConoughey is going to quickly emerge as the candidate to beat in this race. Media and conventional “wisdom” may not be there yet, but he has all the pieces in place.
Keep in mind this guy STARTED just about a month ago, and he’s already on TV, radio and has signs up. That’s impressive.
Puppet Master = Steven Shearer, campaign manager to Aaron Schock and to one of the most corrupt members of Congress- Jerry Weller, and also a former DC lobbyist who supposedly represented the royal family of Saudi Arabia.
RAYFAN – Having a family qualifies you for Congress? Somebody tell Britney and K-Fed that Illinois has a congressional seat waiting for them!
Anonie-
It may not qualify someone for Congress, but it certainly shows a stability and maturity that is different from a young, unmarried, childless candidate. I am not saying that the perception is always reality, but it certainly adds to the entire picture.
Wonderboy- You forgot jobless. Afterall after Oct. 29th I’d be very surprised to see him back at the Capitol.
If I type: http://www.AntiSchock.com in my browser would it take me to this site????
SCR-
No, but excellent counterargument to the perceptions of Schock which have been expressed. Apparently we should just vote for him because he is the chosen one?
Rayfan, I hate to burst your bubble, but Jim is gonna run a distant third, if he even stays in until the end. I don’t think he brings much out of the ordinary to the table… he’s a bit bland in person… and speaks only fairly well. I just don’t see him making much of an impact.
Of course, I am wrong 68.45% of the time.
[...] and NOT to Aaron Schock is because Schock hasn’t formally announced. So my speculation there’s some sort of anti-endorsement going on is full of it, [...]
Morris, McConoghey and Versace are not veterans either. So then you not going to vote at all?
No Vets-
You should take the time to read entire comments…it would help in your understanding of the point being made. Here is what I said:
“I don’t have a problem with those who choose not to serve, but I do take a look at a candidate’s path to their current role in life. As a veteran, I know that I wouldn’t trust the guy to make decisions regarding national security or the war…but it has nothing to do with his age.”
I look at the background of a candidate in its entirety. Part of that consideration includes whether they ever served, but not the entire decision-making process. It is only one small consideration. However, in Schock’s case we have a candidate who is attempting to be seen as the “experienced” choice which I find to be incredibly absurd. His “experience” has been as an elected official and essentially nothing else. And please, don’t attempt to use his work for Junction or as a landlord as experience…that simply doesn’t cut it when we are looking at congressional candidates. The simple fact remains that Schock is not experienced and one small part of that lack of real life on his resume is the fact that he never served.
As a side note, excellent effort with trying to twist the words to avoid dealing with the real issue of Schock’s questionable resume.
I agree with Wonderboy on his comment about Schock’s experience. Springfield and Congress are filled with individuals with plenty of legislative experience, doesn’t seem to be doing them any good.