State Rep. Aaron Schock today issued a press release claiming a commanding lead, according to a poll commissioned from Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, Virginia. Via a press release:
With less than fifty days until the Republican primary election, Aaron Schock is in an enviable position. Schock has excellent name recognition with high favorables, while his opponents lack defined images. On the ballot, Schock leads his nearest opponent by more than forty points. He is well-positioned to be the Republican nominee for U.S. Congress from Illinois’ 18th District.
Key Findings
1. Aaron Schock has an excellent image among Republican primary voters.
Eighty-six percent (86%) of likely Republican primary voters have heard of State Representative Aaron Schock, with 64% having a favorable impression of Schock and 4% having an unfavorable impression. Encouragingly, Aaron’s name recognition and image have grown since August, when his image was 59% heard of/49% favorable/1% unfavorable.
Even more encouraging is that Schock’s favorables are more than twice that of his nearest Republican opponent. Jim McConoughey’s image is 65% heard of/25% favorable/2% unfavorable, while John Morris’s image is 42% heard of/15% heard of/3% unfavorable. McConoughey and Morris face an uphill battle trying to match Schock’s name recognition and favorables in the final weeks of the primary campaign.
2. Schock holds a commanding lead on the Republican primary ballot. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Republican primary voters back Aaron Schock on the ballot. McConoughey polls 14%, followed by Morris with 4% of the vote. Twenty-three percent (23%) of primary voters are undecided. By intensity, 35% definitely vote for Schock, while just 3% definitely back McConoughey and 1% are committed to Morris.
Primary voters are responding to Schock’s campaign message, and it will be difficult for Morris and McConoughey to catch him on February 5.
Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey in the 18th Congressional District of Illinois on behalf of Aaron Schock for Congress. The survey was completed December 18-19, 2007 among 300 likely GOP primary voters and has a margin of error of +5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.
The campaign added this statement:
Public Opinion Strategies polls for the Wall Street Journal and NBC News and for more Republican Members of Congress than any other firm. Thus, they are a highly respected firm in Washington, DC, among political and polling professionals.
“Public Opinion Strategies is the gold standard of polling firms,” said Schock campaign manager Steven Shearer. “Regarding the poll, the numbers speak for themselves.”
UPDATE: POS is not as universally respected as Shearer would have us believe. According to Source Watch:
Public Opinion Strategies (POS) describes itself as a “Republican polling firm”. It has offices in Virginia, Colorado and California.
“IRI’s annual reports for 2003 and 2004 include among their lists of volunteers a significant number of Republican pollsters, consultants, strategists, public opinion researchers, and campaign website designers, some of whom have come under fire for unethical practices.
“For example, Rob Autry and Gene Ulm are with Public Opinion Strategies, the largest Republican polling firm. POS was responsible for the “Harry and Louise” ad in the early 90’s that scuttled Clinton’s health insurance proposals. In 2001, it was charged with violating Virginia’s polling disclosure laws, and it has also been accused of using push polls to influence elections.”
I’d love to see the exact questions these pollsters asked, and I’d like to see from what group POS got the list of phone numbers. Remember, Schock has been getting a ton of pulbicity throughout the district. Very little of it was positive. It ranged fro harsh criticism from just about everyone for proposing nuclear arms sales to Taiwan to being verbally spanked by U.S. Rep Ray LaHood over campaign literature.
I’m amazed that any legitimate poll “completed” on Dec. 18-19 could show 58 percent of likely primary voters would vote for Schock.
From the beginning, Schock has gone to great lengths to portray himself as the eventual, inevitable GOP nominee. Months of bad publicity has led to not a little bit of buyer’s remorse among those who thought he was inevitible.
So Schock really needed a poll that showed him not only winning, but with well over 50 percent of the vote. The last thing he needs is for people to think that a majority of likely GOP voters want someone else, lest there be a behind-the-scenes capaign to convince either McConoughey or Morris to drop out and endorse the other.
Tags: Aaron Schock, Jim McConoughey, John Morris, Poll
Billy Dennis is a former reporter and editor at small daily and weekly newspapers in Illinois and Missouri. He comments on media, news and politics. He also owns and operates 
I think John needs to have a moment to himself and honestly evaluate this situation. He is so far behind Schock and McConoughey that he really has no hope at this point even though he was the first candidate to officially announce.
If he believes, as many republicans do, that Aaron Schock is not who we want as the next 18th District Congressman than he needs to do what is best. I see no other option than for John to concede and give McConoughey his support unless he wants Schock to win in a landslide.
As for POS being the “gold standard” in polling firms… there is a reason there name spells POS. They have a history of push polling for republican/conservative groups. They put out a putt last year claiming that approx 80% (I dont remember the exact number but it was high) of Americans supported the President’s plan for Iraq.
Shearer is the most dubious figure in Central Illinois politics. He will do whatever he can to insure Schock gets elected so he can become the next Karl Rove.
You Schock haters have a major case of denial. Denigrate the poll all you want, you will see the results on Feb 5th. You will hit a brick wall of reality when you wake up on Feb 6th. Until then, have your fun now.
[...] MORE AT CAPITOL FAX AND ALSO NEW POLL ON RACE TO REPLACE LAHOOD; SCHOCK CLAIMS BIG LEAD AS REPORTED ON PEORIA PUNDIT [...]
I find webster’s post HILARIOUS, it reminds me of the old school threats that WWF wrestlers would make between bouts.
“brick wall of reality” – priceless
web, I hope all of you Schockamaniacs out there are taking your vitamins you’re gonna need ‘em.
11Bravo, we all get it, you have a jealous obsession wtih Schock. You probably haven’t had much success in life and feel you should be in Schock’s position. But your daily piling on Schock really demonstrates you have a big void in your life.
Nice try Sarge, but I don’t have to defend myself to you or anyone else. But if you feel it necessary to attack one (of many) messengers because you can’t argue against the message so be it.
But in the end you have to ask yourself who has the obsession, the individual who calls into question the ethics of a political candidate or the individual who attacks a faceless benign blog username.
.Schock as the overwhelmingGOP favorite shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. He’s a self-promoter with little going for him except his driving ambitions. Remember…”Never over estimate the intelligence of a GOP primary voter or under estimate their interest in complex issues.” Schock is their perfect candidate
Does anyone really believe this is anything other than a ham-handed attempt to influence people with biased poll results? Does it seem a little odd? Or maybe a little desperate? I would love to see the real poll results–I bet they tell a differnet tale! In fact, I would bet the Schock campaign is taking on a little water at this point.
I sort of thought 11Bravo’s analysis was just that: an analysis. While he (she?) might indeed pile on vitriol re. Schock in other posts – he (she?) certainly didn’t in this case. It’s just a considered analysis, particularly the notion that Morris could concede and throw his supporters to McConoughey.
Schock’s tough – no question. I’d guess (and just a guess) it is still his race to lose, despite gaffes. But who knows? Pollesters don’t, not really. They sample. During the 2004 election, we saw what polls told us about Howard Dean, and they were wrong. Of course, then it becomes a discussion of how much do published polls and candidate polling affect voters. Fascinating stuff.
Getting back to 11Bravo: The one thing I am quite sure about, however, is that a one-on-one race would be somewhat, if not considerably, closer than a three-way.
Alas, here ought to be a place for a thoughtful discussion, not so much defensive, mean-spirited tripe. Hating a candidate or politician is a pretty strong sentiment. After all, it’s just politics.
Besides, we can don our evil alter-egos suits and behave badly over on O’Brien’s Briar Patch or Meatball Mansion.
Sorry, but this poll smells funny. I’m treating it like leftover Chinese…once it starts to smell even a little, it’s best to toss it in the garbage.
The numbers don’t make sense, the sample is questionable, and the agency has a history of push polling. Timing is also interesting…release the great results the Friday before the Christmas weekend to let the numbers sit in the news cycle for 5 days. Well played by Shearer, but I also think it’s a load of junk.
No one has released polling results from McConoughey or Morris’ campaigns. If you don’t believe the numbers, you should suggest a media company contract with any credible polling firm and take their own poll.
McConoughey’s campaign manager Matt Bisbee just responded to a reporter that they did conduct a poll on Nov 13 and 14. But they didn’t release those results at the time. Wonder why? Bisbee said “Schock was well under 50% and McConoughey was at 20%.” Translated, that meant a 25 point lead for Schock. Since then Schock and McConoughey have both been on TV and sent mail. As before, voters have repsonded well to Schock.
14 months ago, many stated Schock would be lucky to come in a couple points ahead of Spears in the state rep race. The Schock campaign told it like it was then and that was disparaged in the blogs but the final margin was 59% to 41%, just as predicted.
Some were mystified by that. They just don’t understand Aaron Schock’s voter appeal. No poll information that Schock’s campaigns has released over the years has ever been other than exactly on target with the final vote count.
The race is by no means over. January will surely be a heated month of campaigning. Things could change. The opposition surely has worked carefully on planning the unleashing of their arsenal against Schock.
Never-the-less, what was released is a highly accurate snapshot of where the race stands now, for those interested to know.
The head to head question was asked after questions making sure respondents were registered to vote and were Republicans very likely to vote in the Feb 5th primary. The key question was this:
And, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom
would you vote… (RANDOMIZE NAMES)
Jim McConoughey
John Morris …or…
Aaron Schock?
No descriptions of any of the candidates was made before that core question was asked. It was asked in a dispassionate, professional manner.
Time will tell who is correct.
[...] following comment was left to this post about Aaron Schock’s most recent poll numbers. The author is Steven Shearer, Schock’s [...]
Steve, glad you found the holiday spirit and became so sharing. In that spirit of sharing, perhaps you could give us a little more.
What were the rest of the questions? How was the random smaple selected? What about cross tabs, correlations, regressions, and factor analyses (assuming more questions were asked than the “key question”)? And why no response to the questions regarding the somewhat checkered past of the polling firm which you selected?
I think most of us would believe that Schock is the leader in the race, but the numbers claimed seem a little odd based upon recent events. They may hold true, but based upon the recent tornado of negative press (”not just something that he pulled out of his pocket … It’s a deeply thought-out policy”), they seem a little odd.
I have a great idea for the poll which you suggest…ask some UIS grad students to run a poll as a project. They could use the experience, they are in the district, and the professors who provide oversight could ensure accurate analysis of responses. Plus, it could be made public without the potential spin of any campaign. What do you think?
Call me naive, but why wouldn’t the dissenters just put forth their own poll results if they are so disbelieving of the ones by the Schock campaign?
The poll’s a fraud. The Schock campign can’t be trusted. The polling firm can’t be trusted. Let’s see, Schock decides its a good idea to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan. He gets killed in the press and withdraws the proposal with his tail between his legs, but not before there is a funny cartoon in the papers calling him “young and dumb”. Then, he gets caught hiding his support for Giuliani, which raises serious doubts among conservatives as to where he really stands on the issues. Finally, there are a number of articles about how inexperienced and immature he is and also raising issues about his campaign manager. But he is still riding high in the polls?! Lets be honest here. Schock paid a polling firm to generate bogus poll results so he can provide said bogus results to the media in an effort to counter all the bad press. There is nothing to them. The Schock campaign simply got what it paid for.
FYI, the “John Nicolay” who is commenting on this blog is NOT John Nicolay, the lawyer/lobbyist from Chicago. I am, and I am supporting Rep. Schock’s bid for Congress. If someone is using my name as a nom de plume, I would appreciate it if you would choose another. Thanks.
The use of the name John Nicolay might very well be a reference to the man who was Abe Lincoln’s private secretary and later biographer.
people love Aaron, the more criticism- the more active voters become to help him. republicans love annoying the media.
Fantastic, lawyers and lobbysists from Chicago endorsing Schock, if thats not reason to vote for him I don’t know what is…
Heres what I like about Aaron. After I met him at a candidate forum, he sent me a personal e-mail! Then followed it up with a Christmas card. Geez, that is slick. The other guys were good too, but Aarons campaign definately took the prize in the follow-up department!
Obviously, these would be pretty shallow reasons to vote for someone, but I figure if he has the sense to carry out these basic courtesies, he can figure the rest out too.
Diane, if I send you an e-mail and Christmas card, will you vote for me?
Diane: He sent everyone [all Republicans voters] a Christmas card. Sorry to ruin your day.
11Bravo.
While John Nicolay may be a lawyer/lobbyist now, he is originally from Sandoval Illinois in deep SOUTHERN illinois. He worked is way through law school at night and served as a prosecutor. As a lifelong friend, I will absolutely vouche for his character and integrity, his political choices are his own. Your disparagement of his profession and locale is as off base as if someone dismissed your views because you were a hogfarmer from Farmington (or whatever you do from whereever you do it). And while the use of the name may have been a pseudonem, he absolutely is right to clarify. Like Schock or hate him, like Schear or hate him, in the spirit of Christmas, lets drop the venom 11 Bravo. YOu’ll have plenty of time to hate lawyers and lobbyists and people from Chicago or Sandoval and even me starting again on December 26th. Merry Christmas Billy for a most informative and entertaining blog.
I’d just like to know if Mr. Nicolay is related to his famous namesake.That would be cool.
Darn it. I was really thinking we rated, as we got one from the Darrin Lahood family and the Ray Lahood family as well. Thanks for busting my bubble lol!
CJ, you know you already have my vote. What are you running for by the way?
Matt,
One lawyer/lobbysit sticking up for another lawyer/lobbyist is not the best defense. But you are right, it was over the top. But I am most definitely not a hog farmer and I am not from Farmington.
yes he is related albeit distantly. and 11 bravo merry christmas to you, even if it comes from a lawyer/lobbyst
Thanks Matt, Merry Christmas to you too.
Thanks, Matt, for adding a voice of reason to this thread. I was having a hard time understanding the hostility.
Personally, I don’t care about push-polls (whatever they are), name recognition, or silly mis-steps (and they all make them!) I care about how our family health care costs will be contained, and how we intend to properly fund our schools. And what can we do about skyrocketing property tax bills.
Candidates- put your visions and your plans out there, and may the best man win!
Diane…I agree that we need to focus on the issues. I just hope that we all take the time to decide based upon the policy views and plans of the candidates. I understand why you found Schock likeable, but I think based upon the issues you present (and others), he isn’t the guy for you.
And Matt, Merry Christmas. You have always been one of teh voices of reason in a party leadership which seems disjointed at times.
For the record, I found Jim McConaughy extremely like-able too, and unfortunately missed the John Morris interview. Although it is my understanding that they all feel similarly on the above referenced issues, all issues important to me, my clients and my family.
The voter today should support a candidate that not only mirrors their feelings on an issue, but also conveys a sense that they are the one that can finally affect change in Washington DC. Honestly, it seems that the politicians today are talking about the SAME THINGS we were talking about 16 years ago when Bill Clinton was elected.
Lets quit the caterwauling and get back to some mature dialogue on how each candidate will make things happen in Washington DC!