The voter today should support a candidate that not only mirrors their feelings on an issue, but also conveys a sense that they are the one that can finally affect change in Washington DC. Honestly, it seems that the politicians today are talking about the SAME THINGS we were talking about 16 years ago when Bill Clinton was elected.

Lets quit the caterwauling and get back to some mature dialogue on how each candidate will make things happen in Washington DC!

And Matt, Merry Christmas. You have always been one of teh voices of reason in a party leadership which seems disjointed at times.

Personally, I don’t care about push-polls (whatever they are), name recognition, or silly mis-steps (and they all make them!) I care about how our family health care costs will be contained, and how we intend to properly fund our schools. And what can we do about skyrocketing property tax bills.

Candidates- put your visions and your plans out there, and may the best man win!

One lawyer/lobbysit sticking up for another lawyer/lobbyist is not the best defense. But you are right, it was over the top. But I am most definitely not a hog farmer and I am not from Farmington.

CJ, you know you already have my vote. What are you running for by the way?

Obviously, these would be pretty shallow reasons to vote for someone, but I figure if he has the sense to carry out these basic courtesies, he can figure the rest out too.

What were the rest of the questions? How was the random smaple selected? What about cross tabs, correlations, regressions, and factor analyses (assuming more questions were asked than the “key question”)? And why no response to the questions regarding the somewhat checkered past of the polling firm which you selected?

I think most of us would believe that Schock is the leader in the race, but the numbers claimed seem a little odd based upon recent events. They may hold true, but based upon the recent tornado of negative press (”not just something that he pulled out of his pocket … It’s a deeply thought-out policy”), they seem a little odd.

I have a great idea for the poll which you suggest…ask some UIS grad students to run a poll as a project. They could use the experience, they are in the district, and the professors who provide oversight could ensure accurate analysis of responses. Plus, it could be made public without the potential spin of any campaign. What do you think?

McConoughey’s campaign manager Matt Bisbee just responded to a reporter that they did conduct a poll on Nov 13 and 14. But they didn’t release those results at the time. Wonder why? Bisbee said “Schock was well under 50% and McConoughey was at 20%.” Translated, that meant a 25 point lead for Schock. Since then Schock and McConoughey have both been on TV and sent mail. As before, voters have repsonded well to Schock.

14 months ago, many stated Schock would be lucky to come in a couple points ahead of Spears in the state rep race. The Schock campaign told it like it was then and that was disparaged in the blogs but the final margin was 59% to 41%, just as predicted.

Some were mystified by that. They just don’t understand Aaron Schock’s voter appeal. No poll information that Schock’s campaigns has released over the years has ever been other than exactly on target with the final vote count.

The race is by no means over. January will surely be a heated month of campaigning. Things could change. The opposition surely has worked carefully on planning the unleashing of their arsenal against Schock.

Never-the-less, what was released is a highly accurate snapshot of where the race stands now, for those interested to know.

The head to head question was asked after questions making sure respondents were registered to vote and were Republicans very likely to vote in the Feb 5th primary. The key question was this:

And, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom
would you vote… (RANDOMIZE NAMES)
Jim McConoughey
John Morris …or…
Aaron Schock?

No descriptions of any of the candidates was made before that core question was asked. It was asked in a dispassionate, professional manner.

Time will tell who is correct.

The numbers don’t make sense, the sample is questionable, and the agency has a history of push polling. Timing is also interesting…release the great results the Friday before the Christmas weekend to let the numbers sit in the news cycle for 5 days. Well played by Shearer, but I also think it’s a load of junk.

Schock’s tough - no question. I’d guess (and just a guess) it is still his race to lose, despite gaffes. But who knows? Pollesters don’t, not really. They sample. During the 2004 election, we saw what polls told us about Howard Dean, and they were wrong. Of course, then it becomes a discussion of how much do published polls and candidate polling affect voters. Fascinating stuff.

Getting back to 11Bravo: The one thing I am quite sure about, however, is that a one-on-one race would be somewhat, if not considerably, closer than a three-way.

Alas, here ought to be a place for a thoughtful discussion, not so much defensive, mean-spirited tripe. Hating a candidate or politician is a pretty strong sentiment. After all, it’s just politics.

Besides, we can don our evil alter-egos suits and behave badly over on O’Brien’s Briar Patch or Meatball Mansion.

But in the end you have to ask yourself who has the obsession, the individual who calls into question the ethics of a political candidate or the individual who attacks a faceless benign blog username.

“brick wall of reality” - priceless

web, I hope all of you Schockamaniacs out there are taking your vitamins you’re gonna need ‘em.

If he believes, as many republicans do, that Aaron Schock is not who we want as the next 18th District Congressman than he needs to do what is best. I see no other option than for John to concede and give McConoughey his support unless he wants Schock to win in a landslide.

As for POS being the “gold standard” in polling firms… there is a reason there name spells POS. They have a history of push polling for republican/conservative groups. They put out a putt last year claiming that approx 80% (I dont remember the exact number but it was high) of Americans supported the President’s plan for Iraq.

Shearer is the most dubious figure in Central Illinois politics. He will do whatever he can to insure Schock gets elected so he can become the next Karl Rove.