The following comment was left to this postabout Aaron Schock’s most recent poll numbers. The author is Steven Shearer, Schock’s campaign manager:
No one has released polling results from McConoughey or Morris’ campaigns. If you don’t believe the numbers, you should suggest a media company contract with any credible polling firm and take their own poll.
McConoughey’s campaign manager Matt Bisbee just responded to a reporter that they did conduct a poll on Nov 13 and 14. But they didn’t release those results at the time. Wonder why? Bisbee said “Schock was well under 50% and McConoughey was at 20%.” Translated, that meant a 25 point lead for Schock. Since then Schock and McConoughey have both been on TV and sent mail. As before, voters have repsonded well to Schock.
14 months ago, many stated Schock would be lucky to come in a couple points ahead of Spears in the state rep race. The Schock campaign told it like it was then and that was disparaged in the blogs but the final margin was 59% to 41%, just as predicted.
Some were mystified by that. They just don’t understand Aaron Schock’s voter appeal. No poll information that Schock’s campaigns has released over the years has ever been other than exactly on target with the final vote count.
The race is by no means over. January will surely be a heated month of campaigning. Things could change. The opposition surely has worked carefully on planning the unleashing of their arsenal against Schock.
Never-the-less, what was released is a highly accurate snapshot of where the race stands now, for those interested to know.
The head to head question was asked after questions making sure respondents were registered to vote and were Republicans very likely to vote in the Feb 5th primary. The key question was this:
And, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom
would you vote… (RANDOMIZE NAMES)
Jim McConoughey
John Morris …or…
Aaron Schock?No descriptions of any of the candidates was made before that core question was asked. It was asked in a dispassionate, professional manner.
Time will tell who is correct.
Shearer makes a good suggestion. It might be a good idea if one or two media orgs get together and commission a poll on some local races, not just the 18th District Congressional primary. Considering there’s some question about the reliability of the one Schock’s campaign just released, it might benefit the public to know if Schock is an inevitable as Shearer claims.
Billy Dennis is a former reporter and editor at small daily and weekly newspapers in Illinois and Missouri. He comments on media, news and politics. He also owns and operates 
Billy wrote:
“It might be a good idea if one or two media orgs get together and commission a poll on some local races, not just the 18th District Congressional priary [sic].”
Or the media organizations can use their limited resources to cover the candidates, their positions, records, and issues. This lets the voters actually learn something about the people they might vote for, and elevates the coverage beyond the horse race.
Just a thought. Ya’ know, with an eye toward deomcracy.
Face up to it…Schock will be the GOP Candidate for Congress and unless the Democrats find a Grade A candidate willing to run and the $500,000 + to run a creditable campaign….. the Ladd will be the Congressman from Central Illinois….the other two GOP candidates made a serious error by not following up on Schock’s goofy announcement about selling Nuclear Weapons with paid media. ….Now that we are in the Holiday Season…It’s too late…..January will be dominated by the Presidential Election with National Media controlling air ways until the Feb 5th Primary….Neither Morris or the other guy have the money to compete with a Presidential focused election…..Bombs Away Aaron can start looking for a roommate in D.C
[...] Manager Steve Shearer has denied that the recently released poll showing his client Aaron Schock with 58 percent of likely votes [...]
The Democrats will need a minimum of $7 million to even come close to defeating Schock, not $500,000.
$500,000 will barely pay for two weeks of TV ads let alone staff and all else that a Congressional campaign needs.
Schock and awe, you have no idea what you are talking about.
Jonathan Ahl says:
Good idea. When can we expect that to start happening?
$7 million? Who are you kidding? If Shock wins the GOP seat, the Democrat that will be running will be beat him without even trying, and without ridiculous amounts of $$
CJ:
Considering WCBU’s resources, we are doing a decent job to that end. Plus, we will be broadcasting two live deabtes between Morris, McConoughey, and Schock.
But yes, I agree, the media needs to do more on the substance.
Uncle Ray was cheap. So when he selected the people in the 18th Congressonal District he made sure the media market was affordable. 90% of the TV coverage is in two markets—Peoria (60%) and Springfield (30%). Schock’s goofy comments and the promise of more to come will ensure a high profile campaign against a Grade A Democrat and lots for FREE media. All the Democrat candidate needs is enough money to get a focused, compelling campaign message across. If the message is creative—the minimum campaign budget is $500,000…..Not so creative….up to $1,000,000……Over $1m is wasted money and a measure of poor campaign managment.