You know how Cindy Ardis-Jenkins is rumored to be holding Aaron Schock’s place in line? The theory goes that if Schock loses in the primary and someone else gets the Republican nod to run for U.S. Congress, then Ardis-Jenkins would drop out of the race for 92nd District seat in the Illinois House, freeing local Republican Party officials to pick someone else to run in the November general election. Presumably this other person would be Schock, who still holds the seat.
This assumes several things:
- Ardis-Jenkins might not want to drop out. Published rumors say she’s thinking of doing just that. She hasn’t yet. Yes, she works for Schock as his neighborhood liaison. But right now it’s HER name on the ballot. She may not want to quit the race after all.
- The GOP might not want Schock back. He ticked off a lot of donors and insiders by deciding to run for Congress instead of holding onto a seat in a state house district traditionally held by Democrats. They spent a lot of money to save that seat, and he decided instantly after Ray LaHood announced his retirement to toss it away to run for Congress. That left more than one GOPer convinced Schock is more concerned about what’s good for Aaron Schock than the rest of the GOP.
- He might not win re-election if he tried. Peoria likes its Republicans to be of the moderate persuasion. Schock previously took pains to present himself as such, but once he decided to leave the statehouse for Congress, he moved way to the right to compete with John Morris and Jim McConoughey. I’d imagine a lot of these moderate Republicans didn’t think much of Schock’s plan to ship nuclear missiles to China (and I imagine a few people who sit on Caterpillar’s board of directors aren’t exactly tickled pink that the guy who wants to be their Congressman wants to pick a fight with a major business partner).
I’m not the only one who thinks Schock might have a little trouble getting re-elected. Illinois blogger Will Reynolds interviewed the two Democratic candidates for the 92nd District seat in the Illinois House, Allen Mayer and Jehan Gordon:
My opinion, in contradiction to the current conventional wisdom, is that this race will be competitive even if Aaron Shock loses the Republican primary and runs for re-election to the House. West-central Illinois has a history of supporting moderate Republicans. After seeing his record in the General Assembly, and some of his statements during the Congressional campaign, voters may decide that Schock is too conservative for the district. He’ll have the same problem if he wins the nomination for US Congress.
The only recent evidence Schock is even the front-runner is a poll, the results of which are questionable. And if incumbent Ray LaHood ever endorses one of the other candidates, or if one of them drops out and endorses the other, then Schock is in the race of his life.
Ironic, isn’t it? Schock’s campaign seems focused on convincing everybody that he’s inevitable. But the only thing that seems inevitable is a GOP victory in the 18th District, no matter who the Democrats can find to run now that Dick Versace dropped out.
Tags: 18th District, 92nd District, Aaron Schock, Allen Mayer, Congress, Jehan Gordon, Will Reynolds
Billy Dennis is a former reporter and editor at small daily and weekly newspapers in Illinois and Missouri. He comments on media, news and politics. He also owns and operates 
Ive been working with Jehan Gordon so I may be a bit biased, but her campaign has really taken off the past couple weeks. I question if Schock could beat her – esp after his latest misteps and the fact that he counted on a lot of african american support last time.
Jehan seems to appeal to alot of people. I think that ironically, Schock paved the way for Jehan. Jehan is a young, hard-working, moderate democrat who is also on the school board. Education and Economy are her platform. Sound familiar?
Mayer to me has come off as holier than thou and a little arrogant. The only reason I decided to help Jehan is because Allen totally backdoored her (as Will mentions in his blog). Jehan had the courage to take on Schock before it was popular and that takes guts.
I’ve run into Mayer for several years at the UAW picnic and the building trades christmas party. I’ve always found him to be very approachable and his proven record of public service makes him an easy choice. Maybe thats why all of the building trades have supported him so enthusiastically. I’ve also met Jehan (for the first time after she decided to run) and she seems very pleasant and bright. Perhaps after she’s actually worked on a school board budget or two she’ll be ready to tackle the problems in Springfield, but at this point, her backers can’t turn this sacrificial lamb into a roaring lion(ness). Koehler and Blagojeviches endorsements don’t carry much weight with me compared to a guy I’ve seen helping OTHERS locally for many, many years.
Allen Mayer supported Jehan Gordon when she committed to run against Schock. I believed back then and I still believe today that Jehan is very capable of beating Schock if that scenario arises.
Allen decided to go back on his word and enter the race while the Peoria Co. Democratic Party and several prominent elected officials remain behind Jehan. I know several people that are very turned off by Allen now because you simply can’t trust what he says.
Cen IL,
Interesting argument. When did the entire Peoria Dem Party say they were supporting Gordon? She is a decent person, but stood no chance against Schock. I am sure he could not wait to run against her.
Many party regulars are questioning the wisdom of the Chair and Sen Koehler to back this Horse. But when you look at the fiasco that has been engineered in the 18th Dist race on the Democrat side, it isn’t hard too understand.
>The two Democrats running are Allen Mayer and Jehan Gordon. >Mayer is a member of the county board and works for Comptroller >Dan Hynes. Gordon works at Illinois Central College and once >worked for Barack Obama.
Interesting that a blogger from Springfield who says he doesn’t know much about either candidate is under the impression Jehan Gordon was a staff person for Senator Obama. Especially since she wasn’t. Ever. Did he get this impression from interviewing her (I contacted him to ask him to clear this up on his blog)?
Jehan has many fine attributes and its admirable for a person so young to get involved in politics…
…However, misrepresenting, or lying, about your record is a surefire way to cut short a political career.
Jehan did volunteer for Obama and was very ivolved in his campaign. She also went thru Camp Obama. I dont know that she was ever paid by him, but she never claimed to be. Jehan has been with Barack Obama from the beginning. Including when Hynes ran against Obama.
Id take an Obama person over a Hynes person anyday. Hynes represents the old, Obama is the new movement!
For as experienced as Mayer seems to be, I dont see him running a very good campaign.
Also, Allen may not have all the union support he thinks. Stay tuned…
I think it is special that Gordon supporters always are negative about Mayer. Mayer talks about the issues and his record as a public official. I guess when you do not have a record to run on your supporters have to resort to the dirty, Chicago Style politics of personal attacks.
Please point out a personal attack. Im talking about change. Either the same old, entitled people or a new, fresh movement.
According to your definition, I could say that you had a “personal attack” against Dave Koehler an Billy Halstead for their “lack of widsom” (dumb?) in supporting Jehan. Who is attacking who?
I dont dislike Mayer. Im just stating my opinion. I see a fire in Jehan. A desire to work hard and win. I see a sense of bored, entitlement with Mayer.
I have a great deal of respect for Jehan. When no one else, and I mean no one, had enough guts to stand up and run against Schock, she was the one person who said yes. She has a fire in her belly and wants this job. She is willing to do the hard work required for the job. I think it’s about time the citizens of Peoria had a Representative in Springfield who is working for them, not just to further his own political career. This job should not be looked at as a stepping stone….it certainly can be a good stepping stone for future political office, but it should not be used solely for that purpose. As they say, no guts, no glory….well, give her the chance and she’ll show you the glory, because it’s obvious Jehan has the guts.
“I’d imagine a lot of these moderate Republicans didn’t think much of Schock’s plan to ship nuclear missiles to China (and I imagine a few people who sit on Caterpillar’s board of directors aren’t exactly tickled pink that the guy who wants to be their Congressman wants to pick a fight with a major business partner)”
Do you really think Cat’s BoD follows this local nonsense? How many actually live in Illinois? Maybe one? Nice try to involve them for drama but doubt they care.
Ep Blondie: I am absolutely certain that the Chinese government follows which Congressional candidates are advocating giving nuclear weapons to Taiwan.