The answer: Maybe. But if it does, it won’t be for the same reasons.
For those Peorians who don’t follow state politics (thanks in no small part to the local media’s general disinterest in the subject) were was some huge news Saturday. Democrat Bill Foster, a political unknown, defeated millionaire GOP foe Jim Oberweis in a special election to replace Dennis Hastert as Congressman from the 14th District.
Foster will serve the remainder of Hastert’s term, and will have to face re-election in the November general election. His foe then will likely be Oberweis again.
Consider the implications. The far-west suburban district has been considered a Republican stronghold. But changing demographics and a general dissatisfaction with the GOP has tilted the district more Democratic.
There’s speculation that this might mean trouble for another Congressional district that’s traditional been a sure win for the GOP — the 18th District. after all, incumbent Congressman Ray LaHood is retiring.
My advice to the Dems is to not get cocky. A lot of factors played out in the 14th that don’t affect the 18th.
First, I doubt that 18th’s demographics have changed all that much since last election. Maybe there’s some data bearing this out. But there’s been a lot of overall growth in that district as working class folks from Chicago are moving in.
Second, Aaron Schock is no Jim Oberweis. Love him or hate him, Schock has proven himself capable of winning elections. Oberweis has proven nothing, except that voters don’t like him. The millionaire dairyman has been able to buy his way past the primaries a couple of times, but in the end has been rejected by voters four times in the last six years.
For reasons I have expressed before, I don’t think Schock is as strong as his supporters think he is. And I also do not think opponent Colleen Callahan is a weak candidate in the least. And I agree that if Barack Obama heads the ticket, Callahan is in really good shape in November.
The importance of Foster’s victory in the 14th is that it’s red meat to the troops. The last Democrat who came close to winning was G. Douglas Stephens back when he first ran against Bob Michael. And he did it with the support of rank-and-file Democrats who felt tossed to the side of the road by the economy. They didn’t get a lot of help from the national party, and I would advise them to not count on any help this time around, either.
Tags: 14th, 18th, Aaron Schock, Bill Foster, Colleen Callahan, Dennis Hastert, Jim Oberweis
Billy Dennis is a former reporter and editor at small daily and weekly newspapers in Illinois and Missouri. He comments on media, news and politics. He also owns and operates 
Oberweis just cemented his reputation as a loser. Those losses are rapidly turning into a joke. I’m surprised the GOP would stake this symbolically important race on him.
You’re right, it’s hard to find many parallels between the 14th and the 18th.
Schock will have trouble getting traction as a freshman Republican in what will be an even more Democratic House. He’ll be a very small fish in that pond.
About Callahan: I was at the Peoria Democratic Dinner (President’s Day) and she was going around shaking hands, and she had a campaign official trying to sign people up.
I asked for Callahan’s stance on *any* issue and got no response; Callahan’s blurb mentioned that she had been here a long time and knows agriculture. Period.
Frankly, I am not going to waste my time; they have been “oh, she is an attractive, well spoken person” and that has been about it.
[...] Peoria Pundit has written some nice articles (here and here) about our Democratic candidate for the IL-18 race. We didn’t run anyone in the primary but [...]
I’ll be the Devil’s Advocate for you Billy. You argue that the demography hasn’t changed much, and I’ll defer to your judgment and knowledge on that front. What has changed is the political environment. Only the die-hard partisans foresaw the tidal election coming in 2006. Remember Karl Rove’s “Permanent Republican Majority?” Remember in the past couple of years there has been a shift in the electorates preference between generic Republicans and Democrats. The public now prefers Democrats. I also want to emphasize that the economy can degenerate a lot in the next several months before the general election. The political environment should favor the democratic candidate which should negate the IL-18 Partisan Voting Index of 5.5% which is only .5% more Republican than IL-14.
Secondly, I’ll grant you that Aaron Schock is a much better politician than Oberweis, but then again who has he beaten. Local school board races are generally low turnout non-partisan affairs. Ricca Sloan was damaged goods when he took her out. How has he done at the top of the ticket? Has he been tested? To use a football analogy, is he this year’s Ohio St. in the BCS Championship game? He hasn’t exactly beaten FDR. Aaron Schock also has a record and statements that he cannot run from. He’ll also not be able to have forums run by such non-partisans as the Khazzams and the DeMontes.
You end your post by noting the Stephens-Michel race in 1982. Bob Michel was the Minority Leader and Aaron Schock is a flawed candidate without the advantages of incumbency. See my first point about the political environment.
Lastly, I do find it disturbing that a man who blogged for the Peoria Co. Democratic Party would disparage the candidate in this forum, where his opinion could possibly circulate in perpetuity. I guess Schock is a better candidate and I guess that Obama will need grunts on the ground in November. I, for one, will not only waste my time, I’ll be wasting the balance of my checkbook also.
Here’s a good New York Times piece on the 14th and its implications:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/10/us/politics/10house.html
Glad you brought up the “Permanent Republican Majority,” BrianG. Such hubris. Lasted 12 years, the same amount of time as the Thousand-Year Reich.
I’m not impressed with the NYT piece. It struck me as a case of a reporter going into an article with a preconceived notion and then going out and finding sources who were happy to confirm them.
I repeat: The 18th District race won’t be about a shift in party loyalty as it will be about personality and the economy.
And can we PLEASE discuss the Bush Administration without shoehorning references to the Nazis? It does a disservice to the millions who died in the Holocaust.
To beat up Billy for his piece here is absurd.
And to dismiss Schock’s school board write-in campaign and his victories in heavily Democratic districts as a series of anomalies is grasping at straws.
Schock is a politician and a campaigner, and Callahan’s argument (and Morris, and McConoughey’s, as well) is that not being a politician is better preparation for a political job than actually being a politician. Some people may agree with that, but I think it’s clear that campaigning and running for office is a distinct skill that can be picked up no where else and Schock is quite good at this.
Yes, she said something on issues.
Against the war, wants to push for affordable health care and money for higher education.
Cool!
You know, I like going door to door but I don’t want to be in this position:
“hi, I’d like to ask you to vote for X”.
“Ok, what is his/her stance on the war?”
“Uh, I dunno.”
“What is their stance on the new FISA bill”
“Uh, I donno.”
“Why should I vote for your candidate then?”
“Uh, because he/she is nice, has lived here a long time and isn’t a real politician.”
“Uh, aren’t there about 100,000 other people in this region that fit that description?”
BrainG: no offense, but about the only person who knows that I blog about Democratic issues is you.
Ok, maybe Vonster, but that is because he likes to jerk my chain.
It’s the Peter Principle not grasping at straws. People raise to the level of their incompetence. My point is that running for Congress is a quantum leap compared to the local school board and state rep. I stand by my assertions that Schock has had the good fortune to run against flawed candidates. We’ll find out how good he and Callahan are on election day. He has the advantage of a highly disciplined G.O.P. machine as was evidenced by how many county chairmen lined up after Taz. Co. Chairman Demetra Demonte’s interview in the PJS last fall. He has the advantage of a head start in terms of money and ground game.
Do not underestimate the energy of local democrats who have had to suffer the series of sacrificial lambs. There are people who’ve been waiting and saving their money for a real shot. Do not underestimate Colleen Callahan, she has some advantages due to her families involvement in Democratic politics the past couple of generations. Do not underestimate her social networks she’s cultivated the past quarter of a century both from her broadcasting work, and her work with the FFA,Pork producers, and the University of Illinois. She is going to be much more formidable than any of Aaron’s previous victims. Throw in the political environment which is trending Democratic, and perhaps the issue in September and October might be $4.00 a gallon gasoline, and it is not inconceivable that an upset could occur and we could have our first Democratic Congressperson since the Wilson administration.
Legitimate concerns. I respect your opinion, but I did not expect to see it in print. Sorry about blowing your cover. It’s not like you’ve been up to date at that site. I just expect Democrats to support Democratic nominees in partisan elections. That’s what made Zell Miller so likable. I’ve bitten my tongue the last few times in the IL-18. I just expected more that’s all.
What we all need to remember is Aaron Schock got 71% of the vote in a threeway contested Republican primary for an open seat in an overwhelmingly Republican district. That is amazing. Give me an example of similar electoral sucess at this level?
Any suggestion that his previous successes came at the expense of “damaged” candidates, or that beating the incumbant school board president as a write in candidate in a school district that ranks in the top five largest districts in the state is something less than amazing, is laughable at best, and delusional at worst.
He works harder than any of his opponents, he is a proven legislator, and his support base is strong and deep.
Colleen Callahan is a good person with a media and agricultural background. No one questions that. Aaron Schock will run a positive and professional campaign as he always has done, and always will do.
As a result the best person will win and Aaron Schock will represent all the citizens of the 18th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives.